Iran war: the Gulf pays the bill, America cashes in

Since 28 February, European media have told the story of the Iran war in military terms: strikes, missiles, the Strait of Hormuz. From Tbilisi, a few hundred kilometres from the Iranian border, I mostly watch a different map: the map of money. Eight months on, it is clear who is paying the bill and who is cashing in. The Gulf states, once thought untouchable, are coming out as the big losers. American oil and gas producers, meanwhile, are having a record year.

I am not claiming that Washington went to war to sell its energy. I have no proof of that, and it is not my point. I am simply looking at the figures. And they tell anyone who invests or runs a business in the region a great deal.

The Gulf, the big loser of the Iran war

The International Monetary Fund published its regional forecasts in October. Gulf GDP is set to shrink by 4.8% in 2026, after growing 4.5% in 2025. In the spring, the IMF still expected +2%. The gaps between countries are brutal:

• Kuwait: −16.7%
• Qatar: −15.6%
• Bahrain: −11.3%
• United Arab Emirates: −3.9%
• Saudi Arabia: −3.3%
• Oman, the only exception, thanks to ports that lie outside the strait: +4.1%

Oil and gas output from the affected exporters fell from 33 million barrels a day in February to around 19 million in May. Qatar’s output dropped by as much as 86%. According to the IEA, Gulf crude shipments were back above 75% of pre-war levels in September, but the damage is done. The region’s current-account surplus shrinks from 5% to 1.3% of GDP, and the fiscal deficit widens.

Qatar is the most striking case. An Iranian strike on Ras Laffan knocked out about 17% of its liquefaction capacity, and repairing the two damaged trains could take around three years. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on its deliveries until the end of December.

The region’s image as a safe haven is suffering too. In Dubai, prime property prices fell 5% between the second and third quarters, the first decline since 2020 according to Knight Frank. The wealthiest are still buying, but less.

Meanwhile, American terminals are running flat out

On the other side of the Atlantic, the trend is the reverse. In April, the United States exported 13.6 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products, an all-time record, 15% above the previous record set just a month earlier. Crude alone reached 5.6 million barrels a day. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) puts it plainly: the record is due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

On gas, US LNG exports rose 23% in the first half, the fastest pace since 2016. Shipments to Asia, Qatar’s traditional customer base, more than doubled (+108%). To be fair, the EIA also credits part of the increase to new terminals coming online. But the timing could not be better: Asian buyers are fighting over cargoes, and the Asian benchmark price is at a four-year high.

Europe, for its part, is paying more. The TTF gas price climbed back above €95 per MWh at the end of October, its highest level since December 2022.

The symbol: Qatar is buying American gas

One fact sums up the year better than any chart. On 29 October, QatarEnergy, long the world’s leading LNG exporter, signed a twenty-year contract to buy up to 3 million tonnes a year from the Louisiana LNG project. A week earlier it had signed with Cheniere, and it already holds a stake in the Golden Pass terminal in Texas. That makes Qatar the largest buyer of US LNG.

The logic is rational: hedge against a strait that can close overnight. But the implications are huge. The Gulf’s gas giant now pays America to secure its own contracts. If you are looking for the one left holding the bag, there it is.

A caveat: America does not win on every front

I am wary of stories that are too simple, this one included. American exporters are winning, but American consumers are paying too. At the end of September, diesel averaged $6.53 a gallon in the United States, 77% more than a year earlier. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since 1982. Washington even went as far as negotiating deliveries of Russian diesel in October.

So the real dividing line is not between “America” and “the Gulf”. It runs between those who produce outside the conflict zone and those who depend on it. Oman, with its ports outside the strait, is growing. Kuwait, locked in behind Hormuz, is collapsing.

What I take from it as an investor or entrepreneur

• Geography is a first-order risk again. A rich country can lose 15% of its GDP in a year if all its exports pass through a single chokepoint.
• Concentration is the real danger. One market, one route, one currency: that applies to an oil state as much as to a portfolio.
• Alternative routes are gaining value. Here in Georgia, exports to Iran have grown more than eightfold over the first eight months of the year (+747%, Georgia Today). The Caucasus acts as a safety valve, with one clear constraint: Georgia applies US sanctions, and compliance is not negotiable.
• Never confuse prosperity with security. The Gulf remains a solid region, and the IMF expects a strong rebound in 2027 if the fighting stops. But anyone who had concentrated all their wealth there has learned this year what a single point of passage can cost.

Do you want to spread your assets or set up a business away from the most exposed areas? I can support you on the ground: business consulting in Georgia, or let’s book a meeting.